My prediction on the California recall, for the four or five people who read this, is this: After the initial infatuation with Arnold starts to wane when they realize they really don’t want to take the leap with him, the two conservative Republicans split their sector of the vote (even if one drops out and throws his support to the other one, it won't be enough), voters take a hard look at Cruz and realize that despite his gutsy, if somewhat foolhardy economic plan, he really doesn't have the gravitas to run CA, Ueberroth makes a late charge as a capable, respected "caretaker" type candidate, and Arianna and her (newfound) Green compatriots don't ever reach five percent in the polls - Gray squeaks by in the first question on the ballot and holds on to remain Gov.

A slightly insane prediction given the latest poll has Gray at around 26% approval in the state. But this guy is at his best when he's face down in the muck, and his team is experienced at coming from behind, using whatever means necessary. Wait until the week after Labor Day, when the opp research starts to ooze out of Sacto.